RIMM tonight

Time just flies. Seems like only yesterday we were kicking the earnings pre-season off with RIMM getting blasted.

But wait a sec., RIMM beat the rush this quarter, gapping down 15% in mid February. So thanks to that (I'm guessing), not much in the way of expectations for fireworks tonight. The April 45-50 strangle trading in the high 4's now, translating to about an 85 volatility or so.

Tough to tell where volatility might go after tonight. I suspect mid 60's, but given that this is to some extent the first look at earnings reactions in the "new" bull, hard to know. Market volatility in general is strong, as we know, but by the same token RIMM 10 Day HV has cratered lately as the chart below shows.

Anyway, mid 60's volatility translates to about an 8% move tonight, far from cosmic for RIMM. I prefer shorting options into earnings, so I'm going to take a rain check on this one as I don't feel sufficiently compensated to risk a gap in my face.

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